January 15, 2018

Why Democrats will win in 2018

There's a latent reason why 2018 (or any other midterm election ending in an 8) is more likely to result in changes in Congress than any other. The United States Census happens every 10 years -- here's the 2010 data and the future home of the 2020 data. The results from these surveys are used by states to redraw their Congressional districts to their liking. Hence, whichever party controls a given state the year of the census bears a strong correlation to the party of their house delegation for the next few election cycles. But this correlation tapers off as you get closer to the next census, because people will move around, but the numbers are unknown until the next census. I cannot figure out why none of the media outlets highlights this point.

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